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The upcoming revival of the bond market
The capitulation is in full progress which finally provides the opportunity to reverse some of the enormous underperformance of recent years.
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Fallacy Alarm
April 2024 Market Strategy (this one is important!)
The bond capitulation is finally happening. It comes at the worst time for the duration crowd. From an investment strategy perspective, this has…
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Fallacy Alarm
The state of macro: A nuthouse with no hope?
Fixing inflation means getting deficits down. Rate cuts will therefore be disinflationary. When will the Fed understand that and act accordingly?
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Fallacy Alarm
8
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The Tesla Transformation 2030 (incl. Excel Model)
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2
What is a fair P/E ratio for Tesla?
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4
Enough with the Fear Porn already.
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12
TSLA 3Q23: Depressed Elon.
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7
This is where 2023 differs from 2008.
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20
Time to go easy. (incl. Excel Workbook)
Rate cuts will cause a credit boom. Beneficiaries will be those with a high debt burden. The junkier the better. Like Canadian subprime lending for…
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Fallacy Alarm
We're too depressed and cynical to produce a boom and bust.
Pessimism is like fertilizer for the stock market. And there is plenty of it right now.
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Fallacy Alarm
7
Much weaker USD ahead?
It's time for the global economy to shake off the US Dollar wrecking ball. Risk-on means Dollar down.
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Fallacy Alarm
2
Fallacy Alarm's Elevator Pitch Party
15 bull and bear cases summarized short and sweet.
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Fallacy Alarm
1
Never hedge the most telegraphed risk.
Investors can't be complacent and attentive of inflation risks at the same time.
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Fallacy Alarm
March 2024 Market Strategy
Narrative shift from soft landing to no landing in the making.
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Fallacy Alarm
Is the fiscal impulse dying?
Just as the mainstream finally latches onto it, the fiscal bull case may start getting compromised for cyclical and political reasons. That's not bad…
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Fallacy Alarm
Fallacy Alarm
Fallacy Alarm
Blending single stock, macro and thematic research into powerful bull and bear cases.
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