Other Single Stock Research

Feb 10, 2023

Taking a fresh look at XLE

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article is not and should not be construed as investment advice. This is my investing journey and I simply share what I do and why I do that for educational and entertainment purposes. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund…

3 months ago · 8 likes · Fallacy Alarm

Catch the Spirit?

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article is not and should not be construed as investment advice. This is my investing journey and I simply share what I do and why I do that for educational and entertainment purposes. This week, a court ruling stopped the merger between Spirit and JetBlue which sent shockwaves through some parts of the investor community. As of this writing, Spirit stock is down more than 60% without finding a floor so far. With a huge debt burden and mounting operating losses, Spirit seems to be running out of options in the eyes of many observers. Some even talk about filing for bankruptcy already…

3 months ago · 13 likes · 1 comment · Fallacy Alarm

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article is not and should not be construed as investment advice. This is my investing journey and I simply share what I do and why I do that for educational and entertainment purposes…

3 months ago · 12 likes · Fallacy Alarm

Time to fertilize my portfolio

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article is not and should not be construed as investment advice. This is my investing journey and I simply share what I do and why I do that for educational and entertainment purposes. Based on my overall macro view, I am looking to increase the risk in my portfolio without getting duration exposure. Naturally, that means I am looking for cyclical value stocks…

3 months ago · 15 likes · 2 comments · Fallacy Alarm

MSTR: The mother of all sh**cos.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article is not and should not be construed as investment advice. This is my investing journey and I simply share what I do and why I do that for educational and entertainment purposes. I try my best to be transparent about my positioning to the extent it is relevant to my posts. However, I reserve the right …

5 months ago · 9 likes · 14 comments · Fallacy Alarm

BioVie: Taken in chokehold by its majority shareholder (incl. Excel workbook)

BioVie is a clinical stage pre-revenue biotech company developing drugs against Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s. As important phase 3 data are due by the end of this month, there is an opportunity to benefit from increased volatility priced into its option chain. I have attached my Excel workbook with the company’s key financials and the details of my trade…

6 months ago · 3 likes · 2 comments · Fallacy Alarm

LMND 3Q23: Real juice or just squeezing?

Lemonade published their 3Q23 earnings yesterday. As you know, I am not the biggest fan of this company. In fact, I am actively shorting it via naked short calls. That has worked well since my original bear case from November last year when it was trading at $20…

6 months ago · 2 likes · 8 comments · Fallacy Alarm

PCAR 3Q23: Looking toppy (incl. Excel workbook)

Quick announcement: If you ever need professional valuation services for litigation, taxation, financial reporting or deal purposes, please consider reaching out to me. This can for example be applicable to matrimonial disputes, estate planning, legal entity restructurings or business divestitures/acquisitions. Before I started working on Fallacy Alarm full-time, I have prepared business valuations professionally for more than a decade and have worked on hundreds of valuation subjects during that time. I am still serving entrepreneurs, tax advisors and family businesses occasionally with my expertise. Happy to help you as well…

6 months ago · 2 likes · Fallacy Alarm

Winnebago 4Q23: Thesis Update (incl. Excel workbook)

On October 18, 2023, Winnebago released their 4Q23 earnings (they have a funny fiscal year ending in August). In early September, I published a bullish thesis on the stock arguing that this is a highly asymmetric opportunity given the business is proving remarkably resilient versus stiff macro headwinds. It is very unambitiously valued even based on cyclically depressed earnings. They will continue to benefit from positive shifts in consumer preferences and demographics. And as icing on the cake, the stock is heavily shorted with limited trading volume. This article is an update on that thesis. I have also updated the financials in the attached workbook…

6 months ago · 3 likes · Fallacy Alarm

Birkenstock: Put your sandals on and run away (incl. Excel workbook)

“Some say: “BIRKENSTOCK is having a moment”. I always reply then “this moment has lasted for 250 years, and it will continue to last” - driven by an international consumer movement toward casualization, a growing preference for healthy products, an increasing appreciation of craftmanship and a preference for brands with a purpose…

7 months ago · 5 likes · 11 comments · Fallacy Alarm

IonQ: I believe this thing is real.

is a controversial quantum computing company that went public via SPAC two years ago. On September 19, 2023, they held their inaugural Analyst Day. I found that event impressive in terms of style and the actual content presented (to the extent I was able to follow). They went into great detail about the science, but they also thoroughly explained their commercialization and scaling strategy…

7 months ago · 8 likes · 2 comments · Fallacy Alarm

C3 AI 1Q24: Conman Cubed?

Yesterday, C3 announced their 1Q24 financial results (for the period May-July 2023). Revenues came in at $72.4m, 11% higher than 1Q23. The operating loss amounted to $74.1m, flat year-over-year. FY24 revenue guidance was reduced from >$340m to $295-320m…

8 months ago · 3 likes · 3 comments · Fallacy Alarm

Winnebago: Short squeeze ahead? (incl. Excel valuation model)

I believe there is a decent short squeeze opportunity building up for Winnebago . To illustrate this opportunity, I will first outline the bear case. Then I will explain why I believe that this bear case doesn’t work. The odds favor a cyclical and structural rebound in RV demand which drives upside in the stock. I have attached my valuation model where I illustrate that there is a good chance this will be a $120 stock a few years down the road. That’s 80% upside…

8 months ago · 3 likes · 3 comments · Fallacy Alarm

NVDA 2Q24: Green is the color of envy.

“A new computing era has begun. The industry is simultaneously going through 2 platform transitions, accelerated computing and generative AI.” Jensen Huang When NVIDIA published their 1Q24 earnings on May 24, 2023, my key takeaway was that the bull case finally got validated. I’m not saying you have to believe in the fundamental story. I’m simply saying t…

8 months ago · 7 likes · 2 comments · Fallacy Alarm

RKT 2Q23: Shaking off the mortgage rate shock

Today, Rocket Companies published their 2Q23 earnings, which were solid given the challenging environment. $1.24bn in revenues handily beat $958m consensus. Non-GAAP EPS was slightly ahead ($-0.02 vs. $-0.05). This company is a curious case. Depending on the year, they originate up to 10% of all mortgages issued in the US. Their market cap is $20bn. If they were in the S&P, they would handily be in the top 300. Yet, when I publish research on them, I could not get any less traction…

9 months ago · 6 likes · 4 comments · Fallacy Alarm

LMND 2Q23: Still an excellent short idea

Yesterday, Lemonade published their 2Q23 earnings. Markets did not like this release at all. Today, the stock finished down more than 21.6% to $17.31. On Nov 21, 2022, I published a report on Lemonade as a short idea: I explained why I have doubts that their strategy will eventually yield sufficient profitability, why I have doubts about management’s ability to succeed with their mission and (even if they do) why I think their financial planning sets them up for falling market capitalization and likely substantial dilution. Looking two to three years ahead, I saw the stock heading sub $10 if they don’t get bought out first. This implied 50% downside as the stock was trading at ~$20. To fully appreciate this 2Q23 earnings coverage, I encourage you to read that report first…

9 months ago · 1 like · Fallacy Alarm

Carrier 2Q23: Story on track

This morning, published their 2Q23 results, which were very solid. Organic revenue growth was up 6% year over year and adjusted operating margin was modestly down from 16.5% to 16.1%. They are seeing improvements in cost inflation which is inline with disinflationary trends we are seeing throughout the entire economy. As a result of this earnings relea…

9 months ago · 2 likes · 3 comments · Fallacy Alarm

Shorting UVXY: Madness or Money Maker?

Before we dive in: I recently discussed Tesla’s Q2 earnings with Randy Kirk. We touched on the cyclicality of their margins, the strategy of the Legacy OEMs, the ramp of Tesla Energy and insights from option trading. Check it out and let me know what you think…

9 months ago · 5 likes · Fallacy Alarm

Today, OPEC+ (OPEC and non-OPEC participating countries) announced an adjustment to their level of overall crude oil production to 41 million barrels per day (mbd) starting in January 2024, which equates to a 1mbd production cut. On April 3, 2023, they had already announced a…

a year ago · 5 likes · 1 comment · Fallacy Alarm

NVDA 1Q24: Key Takeaways

“And it's the reason why I call [the introduction of ChatGPT] the iPhone moment. All the technology came together and helped everybody realize what an amazing product it can be and what capabilities it can have.” Jensen Huang, 1Q24 earnings call Today…

a year ago · 11 likes · 2 comments · Fallacy Alarm

CAPREIT: Betting on the Canadian Century

Generally, investing into real estate can pay off two ways: Generating income or riding an appreciating asset. To assess whether it makes sense to invest into a real estate market, we must therefore assess whether… Demand for rent is strong. Supply for rent is not excessive…

a year ago · 4 likes · 2 comments · Fallacy Alarm

AirBnB: Defying the Disruptor's Deflation Dilemma

On May 9, 2023, announced their 1Q23 earnings and took a hefty beating. The growth story appears to be intact. They grew quarterly revenues to $1.8bn (+20% YoY) and achieved $117m in GAAP net income, the first profitable Q1 ever. The stock sold off during the days following the earnings release, which seems to primarily driven by cautious guidance. The…

a year ago · 8 likes · 6 comments · Fallacy Alarm

Pumping Up the Heat: Carrier's Growth Transformation

Before we dive in: I have overhauled my About page. You can expect to receive the same type, depth and cadence of reports from me going forward, but I believe I have clarified it better now for prospective readers (and for myself) what Fallacy Alarm is and what content can be expected…

a year ago · 3 likes · Fallacy Alarm

Mobileye 1Q23: Cross-Read for Tesla FSD

On April 27, 2023, reported their 1Q23 results. Revenues were $458m, up 16% YoY. Net loss widened to -$79m vs. -$60m vs. 1Q22. They reduced their 2023 guidance meaningfully, most importantly revenue by 6.5%. This was primarily driven by weak macro, particularly in the Chinese EV market. But interestingly, they referred directly to…

a year ago · 6 likes · Fallacy Alarm

KRE: Banking on the Pivot

Autopilot to Anguish? Monetary policymakers seem to be completely out of control with the steepest hiking cycle ever. They seem to be determined to keep interest rates high, defying the reality that inflation has been a non-issue for pretty much 6 months. They are running the US banking system into the ground. If they continue to do so, many banks will lose their livelihood as their asset portfolios are impaired and the yield curve inversion will make it eventually impossible to earn a positive interest margin…

a year ago · 5 likes · Fallacy Alarm

Ginkgo Bioworks 3Q22 Digest

Disclaimer: The calculations herein have not been reviewed by anyone and some of them are just high level approximations. Please don’t rely on this information for your investment decisions. I am not providing financial advice with this newsletter. This is simply me trying to figure out this company and inviting you to join me in this journey. Feedback is always welcome in case you have comments, questions or additional context…

a year ago · 2 likes · Fallacy Alarm

The Short Thesis for Lemonade

The Company $LMND was founded in 2015 with the ambition to disrupt the insurance industry through automation and digitization of the customer onboarding, policy administration and claims management process. As of today, the company offers renters’, homeowners’, car, pet and term life insurance. They went public in July 2020 and have heavily targeted reta…

a year ago · 2 likes · 1 comment · Fallacy Alarm

Meta 3Q22 Digest & revisiting my original investment case

Here is my original investment case on : While bulls (to the extent they still exist) typically praise the company’s unambitious valuation, bears point to weak earnings quality. What both have in common is that they try to build a case around their legacy business and they are stuck in…

a year ago · 10 likes · 1 comment · Fallacy Alarm

From generation heads-down to generation heads up - the investment case for Meta Platforms

The consensus investment case for Meta For most bulls, the investment case on Meta rests on the rise of the metaverse/web3.0, an investment theme that gained traction since Facebook’s renaming to Meta in October 2021. The promise of the metaverse is a decentralized reinvention of the internet which gives the power from the centralized platforms of today …

2 years ago · 5 likes · 5 comments · Fallacy Alarm

Short Opportunity in AMC

Disclosure/Disclaimer: I am short long dated calls in AMC stock. While this post does present an actionable idea, it is not financial advice. I am not a registered investment advisor and none of the analysis below has been reviewed by a 2nd set of eyes, which is why there could be material errors therein. Please don’t rely on it…

2 years ago · 2 likes · Fallacy Alarm

Rocket Companies Investment Case

While it does create some PTSD-type sensations for me, I actually believe it is a great time for a fresh look at RKT. We are about to celebrate the first anniversary of the insane March 2021 gamma squeeze and the company will report their annual 2021 earnings on Feb 24. For background, going into 4Q20 earnings, I loaded up on stock and calls. I 5x’ed it…

2 years ago · 1 like · 2 comments · Fallacy Alarm

Is AMZN the best opportunity in Big Tech?

Megatrends driving big tech I believe Big Tech is where the outperformance can most easily be found for retail investors. The stocks of these companies are on decade(s) long bull runs with constant % performance suggesting the more they grow the more they grow…

2 years ago · 4 likes · 4 comments · Fallacy Alarm

Is Spotify a sleeping ad giant?

The Introduction Great investment opportunities often exist when a company with a strong track record tells you what they are going to do, but because it is highly ambitious, markets do not give them credit until they show tangible progress on execution. Spotify in early 2022 may be such a case…

2 years ago · 6 likes · 2 comments · Fallacy Alarm

Enphase Investment Case

Summary I like to bet on winners in megatrends. The rise of electric autonomous vehicles? Tesla. The rise of biological manufacturing? Amyris. The next paradigm shift in the human machine interface? Facebook. Decarbonization of our economy? Tesla again. Or wait? Is there something else to consider…

2 years ago · 4 likes · 2 comments · Fallacy Alarm

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